Sumera B. Reshi
A la Burhan Wani, Hafiz Saeed is a new face of the evolution of militancy in Pakistan.
Hafiz Saeed’s Jamaat –ud-Dawah (JuD) transformed into Milli Muslim League Party. The announcement came when the United States accused JuD of being a front for the anti-India Lashkar –e- Toiba, the outfit which India claims to be involved in 2008 Mumbai attacks. The decision of launching a political party came soon after the US declared JuD a terrorist organization and offered $10 million recompenses for the information about Hafiz Saeed or his conviction.
Hafiz Saeed is accused of being a brain behind 2008 Mumbai attacks which took lives of 166 people. According to the Milli Muslim League spokesperson, Tabish Qayyoum, JuD had already filed registration papers for a new party with Pakistan’s electoral commission and are waiting for the approval. The Milli Muslim League will be the political face of JuD which aims to get across its messages to the grass root levels.
“We have decided to make a new political party so that Pakistan is made a real Islamic and welfare state”, said Saifullah Khalid, president the Milli Muslim League.
Time and again, Saeed has often deprecated democracy and the electoral process, terming it incompatible with Islam. But surely there could a greater intend to change the nomenclature from JuD to the Milli Muslim League or from a hardliner to connive politician.
“The new party was designed to give militants better cover amid pressure from the international community on Pakistan to crack down on LeT and JuD,” said Ayesha Siddiqa, a security analyst in Pakistan.
“The making of a party indicates the need of JuD to hide further so that to avoid criticism”, she added.
Saeed is a popular figure among the Islamists and hardliners. He is an influential person in Pakistan’s religious circles. He is a campaigner and knows very well what is sellable in a country which is facing political instability and security issues. He has his long term and short term plan in mind before rebranding his favourite JuD. He is aware of the returns he might reap from a political party which he can’t get from being head of organizations like LeT and JuD.
With the ouster of Nawaz Sharief, he can have an opportunity to fill in the blanks, develop a larger electoral base in a country where he is free to move despite grave allegations.
Saeed is being invited for television interviews, and now runs one of the country’s fastest growing charity organizations, Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) and which he often denies. With the launch of the Milli Muslim League party, he will be dreaming of replacing Nawaz Sharief or Imran Khan in near future.
With Nawaz Sharief and his future heir apparent Maryum Mawaaz caught in political disarray, he can chip in and fill the void. It is plausible to say the Milli Muslim League Party has a bigger canvas to draw its future map than JuD and LeT.
As a result of LeT and JuD activities, Pakistan has been accused of harbouring Islamist militants and using them as proxies to project power in the region which the country has denied outright. In view of these accusations, Pakistan claims to have acted harshly on these militant groups. Pakistan banned LeT and since January 31, Hafiz Saeed has been kept under house arrest in order to prove to the international community that Pakistan can crack down on these banned outfits.
Nonetheless, neither India nor the United States is satisfied with his house arrest. They want a stern conviction against Hafiz Saeed. Researchers at RAND states that the US should restrict some military assistance to Pakistan till Pakistan limits its support to the militant groups operating on its soil.
According to Seth G. Jones, a political Scientist at RAND, a non profit research organization, Pakistan’s support for militant groups is a part of their foreign policy tool and ending that will take time. To minimize the militant’s support base, the US needs to work with Pakistan on a timeline with measurable benchmarks for success as well the establishment of an enforcement mechanism through intelligence collection. Jones further suggested that military aid to Pakistan should be assigned once these objectives are met with some success.
So in this context, Pakistan placed Hafiz Saeed under house arrest signalling a broader shift in Pakistan’s treatment for extremists. In the past, Pakistan has detained and released Hafiz Saeed which confirms Pakistan’s contradictory attitude towards militants under “the contradictory policy of duality doctrine”.
Despite Pakistan’s contradictory policy of duality, but it has been involved in extensive counter-terrorism and counter – insurgency operations against Al Qaeda, TTP, ISIS along with the US. It has also suffered heavy losses. Around 7000 soldiers died during the combat operations with the extremists, however, Pakistan has often been accused of harboring selective militant groups which include Haqqani network in Afghanistan, LeT, JuD and Falahi Insaniyat Foundation.
This time, Saeed wasn’t star of an eye. National interest, not Hafiz Saeed was given a greater preference. This time he was arrested and confined to his house, asked to take an ample rest. “The decision was based on a new “national policy and for “national interest”, said Maj. Gen. Asif Ghafoor, Pakistan army spokesperson.
Further, political analysts opine that Saeed’s detention is the government’s reaction to a “changing environment”. The decision of Saeed’s capture has brought the smile on China’s face, pleased the US and left India with no option than to take a half a relaxed breath. Besides, another major factor which led to Saeed’s arrest was the change of the guard inside Pakistan’s powerful and influential institution, the army. According to Maj. Gen. Ghafoor, Chief of the army, Pakistan, Gen. Bajwa has a reputation of being “religiously progressive” and pro-democracy. His intentions are to improve Pakistan’s security. For him, individuals are less important than the state. National interest is at the forefront than self-interest, so the former should prevail.
In the past, army chiefs were publicly slammed for being too close to the US. They even survived assassination attempts when they went after militants. In such a changed environment, even Hafiz Saeed blamed international pressure and the US ties with India. Saeed was very calculated while criticizing. This implies that with changing the political landscape of Pakistan, he can also shun some persistent ideas for the time being in order to survive for a larger goal as has been displayed by his party while rebranding JuD as the Milli Muslim League Party.
However, Michael Kugelman, an analyst at Wilson Center Washington and a columnist for the Dawn believes that it is doubtful to assume that Pakistan detained Hafiz Saeed under the pressure of Donald Trump, however, it is likely that Saeed was arrested with Trump in mind.
Hafiz Saeed is a perfect mix of three ingredients which the establishment requires: an anti-Indian sentiment, a patriot who will never go against the Pakistani state and a great motivator. Saeed is considered radical enough by all types of militants, which allows him to sit down and negotiate with groups like the sectarian Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and the anti-government Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). His traits show that he has enough grey matter to survive all political odds. He might be ready to jump into political arena rather than confine himself inside a narrow ally and the Milli Muslim League Party could be a pilot project to test the waters.
The author is a freelance journalist writes for The Legitimate on socio-political issues of South Asia.
